By Mark Harmsworth
Secretary of State John Kerry arrived in Beijing last night for a major Asia-Pacific summit meeting this weekend, where he will meet with his Chinese counterpart Foreign Minister Wang Yi and, his under-secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, Susan Thornton.
Kerry is in Beijing as the current chair of the ASEAN-China joint ministerial committee on maritime and air issues, and according to State Department spokesman Mark Toner his visit reflects the U.S. “commitment to deepened dialogue with China on maritime security, trade and investment, regional prosperity, as well as freedom of navigation and overflight.”
Also on the U.S. schedule is a visit to Hangzhou next week by Vice President Joe Biden, the second time he has traveled to China this year. Biden travels on a jam-packed itinerary that includes India, South Korea, and the Philippines (these are also members of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations).
As they meet with Secretary Kerry and Vice President Biden, Chinese leaders may well be looking at economic issues as a way to enhance American credibility on economic matters. Beijing’s efforts to reduce its trade surplus — worth more than 7% of GDP last year — cannot be successful without a U.S. that is willing to take retaliatory measures against Chinese products.
In another step to improve economic coöperation, Chinese officials are promoting a proposed Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) in October this year in the 19th Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC).
According to Chinese officials, the FTAAP is predicated on “a situation in which cross-border cooperation in trade, financial, and social areas is intensifying, broadening and deepening across a number of Asian countries. This is inevitable.” They see FTAAP as “an engine for economic globalization.” Washington has not formally responded, but Beijing is hoping that it is ready with a trade strategy of its own.
Next week also brings bilateral encounters on defense and strategic issues, including U.S. Defense Secretary Ashton Carter’s first visit to China since becoming Pentagon chief. According to a State Department report last month, Beijing is in a “weapons race” of historic proportions. It expects China’s armed forces to expand “exponentially” over the next decade, “remaining in a strong position to project power” domestically and abroad. China plans “to close the equipment gap with the United States and to acquire space capabilities to further enhance its influence over the region and beyond.”
It is not clear how China intends to resolve this military threat and potential military conflict with the United States, which remains by far the dominant military power in the region. Washington is once again helping Japan and other regional allies such as the Philippines to defend themselves against such aggression by doing more defense and diplomatic support for the disputed islands in the East China Sea and South China Sea.
In spite of all the strategic tension, Beijing and Washington apparently believe that the advantages of not inching toward war outweigh the disadvantages of war. In his last official meeting in September last year with Xi, then-President Obama was not confrontational or very explicit about U.S. concerns about China’s actions.
U.S. officials are understandably reluctant to choose sides in a dispute which is widely perceived by millions of Chinese to be between China and Japan over the uninhabited islets of the Senkaku Islands. The underlying tension is between U.S. support for a U.S.-Japan security guarantee, for close military and intelligence sharing with Tokyo and the U.S. Sixth Fleet, and China’s readiness to defend itself.
President Obama must now make a deliberate choice — one in which he presents a serious challenge to Chinese actions, but does not precipitate a war that could engulf Southeast Asia. If the United States chooses to ignore China’s provocative and aggressive behavior in the Western Pacific, it will put China on a more aggressive path in line with its strategic objectives — and perhaps invite the withdrawal of the troops in South Korea which China may seek to increase as a counterweight to the American military presence in that country.
Mark Harmsworth is the author of Demystifying China’s Past: The History of China.
Mark Harmsworth is the author of Demystifying China’s Past: The History of China.
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